If an election were held tomorrow, all signs point to a resounding Conservative victory. The latest projections from 338Canada show the Conservatives with a commanding lead and a projected 220 seats in the Commons, well past the 170 required to form a majority government.
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If their party’s messaging is to be believed, the first order of business in a Pierre Poilievre government will be to “axe the tax” and end the Liberal government’s carbon pricing program.
However, their victory may be short-lived.
The debate over the carbon tax has focused so far on domestic politics. However, this misses the importance of the international context. Increasingly, our trading partners take the threat of climate change seriously and use carbon tariffs to punish other countries they see as free riders.
Any government that wants to protect Canada from these tariffs will need a credible plan to reduce emissions. The result is that a future Conservative government may have to bring back the carbon tax, whether it likes it or not.
But where is the investment in transit and bike lanes to give people much less carbon intensive forms of transportation? Where are the restrictions on oil exports to prevent other countries from generating carbon with the oil we produce?
The carbon tax alone will not get us out of climate change. We need to both tax carbon production but also provide options that aren’t as carbon intensive so more people have opportunity and incentive to change.