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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • Given the pace of oss optimisation, I fully expect the requirements for a gpt3.5 equivalent performance model to be much lower in the coming year. The biggest issues are around training or fine tuning right now. Inference is cheaper, resource wise. For truly large models, the moat is most definitely gpu compute and power constraints. Those who own their own gpu farms will be at an advantage until there is significant increase in cloud gpu capacity - right now, cloud gpu is at a premium, and can also include wait time for access. I don’t expect this to change in the next year or two.

    Tl;dr; moat is real, but it’s gpu and power constraints.