It took me a while to wrap my head around this, but here’s how I finally got it:
There are three doors and one prize, so the odds of the prize being behind any particular door are 1/3. So let’s say you choose door #1. There’s a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1 and, therefore, a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind either door #2 OR door #3.
Now here’s the catch. Monty opens door #2 and reveals that it does not contain the prize. The odds are the same as before – a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1, and a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind either door #2 or door #3 – but now you know definitively that the prize isn’t behind door #2, so you can rule it out. Therefore, there’s a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1, and a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door #3. So you’ll be twice as likely to win the prize if you switch your choice from door #1 to door #3.
It took me a while to wrap my head around this, but here’s how I finally got it:
There are three doors and one prize, so the odds of the prize being behind any particular door are 1/3. So let’s say you choose door #1. There’s a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1 and, therefore, a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind either door #2 OR door #3.
Now here’s the catch. Monty opens door #2 and reveals that it does not contain the prize. The odds are the same as before – a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1, and a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind either door #2 or door #3 – but now you know definitively that the prize isn’t behind door #2, so you can rule it out. Therefore, there’s a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind door #1, and a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door #3. So you’ll be twice as likely to win the prize if you switch your choice from door #1 to door #3.