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Cake day: June 26th, 2023

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  • I see Russia’s s need for survival the same way when Japan was sanctioned during WW2. Japan didn’t survive simply because they can’t sustain a long war, where they can’t replenish their resources fast enough.

    For Russia to even survive, they need to find allies quickly so they can sustain in the long run. I think they see that in China. However Russia will need to stay dormant for quite sometimes, because they won’t be able to fight head-on against the backer of Europe, the US. Russia will simply lose. They need to passively maintaining their power while piggyback on China for support.

    And rubble is worthless, no doubt about that. What they’ll do now is to rebuilt their East-based economy, by piling up large amount of reserve currency, such as Yuan. They have been trying to persuade other countries to do the same by reducing their dependency on the US Dollar. They others need to do that for their plan to work. It doesnt seem to work, at least for now.

    Anyway what I found interesting is not about Russia but the emergence of India. India’s boldness to defy the call for Russia’s sanction and to take advantage of Russia’s desperation to sell their resources is simply brazen and unheard of. I think the Ukraine conflict has incidentally propel India as a serious emerging country, announcing that they have their own projected goals instead of being forced to choose side.

    The EU will think now Russia is their enemy. But Russia is not even that powerful if we pull nuclear capability out of the equation. But their alliance with the East will be the real problem as it may accelerate the creation of a more powerful China and ironically revitalise the dying Russia, which in the end will actually strengthen them.


  • This is why The US/EU was not able to crumble Russian economy and stop their advance in Ukraine after the sanctions took place. The didn’t expect that China and surprisingly India, and Turkey (to some extent) will come to the rescue. Although Russia was definitely hit hard by the sanction, they manage to reverse the damages by redirecting their resources to the East instead. They have now formally change their policy to Looking/dealing East.