The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
"By using non-parametric trends30,31 and considering an ensemble of 146 CMIP533 and CMIP634 climate model runs (Tables S1 and S2), we identify regions where wetting and drying patterns converge across the globe. Our trend-based approach aligns with the continuous nature of radiative forcing35, provides flexibility and robustness in detecting and quantifying global warming-induced changes, and effectively controls for natural variability36.
Our innovative approach (see “Methods”) evaluates the entire time-series using no interannual averaging and combines information from the fullest range of GCM projections available to determine their agreement and the extent of precipitation impacts with no ensemble aggregation. This is important because each set of simulations provides a plausible storyline of future precipitation patterns under elevated global warming, rather than using aggregated data which can obscure important trends and patterns."
Read the methods before commenting on them please. This study uses 146 different simulation models and takes a non-averaged median projected value to generate the final projections.
"By using non-parametric trends30,31 and considering an ensemble of 146 CMIP533 and CMIP634 climate model runs (Tables S1 and S2), we identify regions where wetting and drying patterns converge across the globe. Our trend-based approach aligns with the continuous nature of radiative forcing35, provides flexibility and robustness in detecting and quantifying global warming-induced changes, and effectively controls for natural variability36.
Our innovative approach (see “Methods”) evaluates the entire time-series using no interannual averaging and combines information from the fullest range of GCM projections available to determine their agreement and the extent of precipitation impacts with no ensemble aggregation. This is important because each set of simulations provides a plausible storyline of future precipitation patterns under elevated global warming, rather than using aggregated data which can obscure important trends and patterns."
Read the methods before commenting on them please. This study uses 146 different simulation models and takes a non-averaged median projected value to generate the final projections.